A Clear Distribution Range
Recent news vs. our projections and signals.
Here is the timeline of recent news together with our projections and signals.
We thought it would be compelling to present this as a strong case for the importance of our models. In the face of an overwhelming amount of optimistic news, it can be challenging to remain emotionally unbiased without proper signals. However, the data doesn't lie, and our AI system, known as the fishtank, began detecting distribution right from the start of the $31-30k range.
State of the market.
Here is the total crypto market capitalisation (BTC+ETH+TOTAL3).
Zooming out:
Despite the altcoin market's recent rise, we're maintaining our view and are still considering the possibility of it hitting a new low.
Our entry: status.
Our entry into the market is subject to the right signal from our system, which is yet to be triggered. Hence, we remain on standby, monitoring the market closely.
Our view is that the market will break its 1-year range to the upside in the coming months. Therefore it is crucial to catch a great entry before that happens.
How low can it go?
In the previous article, we said
"Right now, since BTC has rallied above 31k$, our short term models have turned bearish again. So while things are slowly turning medium-term bullish, we are not buying just yet."
To elaborate, when we say 'things are slowly turning medium-term bullish' we mean that we are getting closer in time to a bullish trend. However, we don't mean to negate the possibility of a substantial market downturn in the meantime.
We don't know how low it will go, because that's not how our system works, instead we use the fishtank outputs to re-evaluate everything on a daily basis.
Both the SP500 and Bitcoin have been up all year, the potential for retracement is big once they lose their uptrends. Right now, the US Dollar just confirmed a bullish deviation back into its old range, while risk assets are getting rejected at resistance.
The risk of not being exposed over 2024-2025.
Over 6 years ago, BTC got rejected at $20k and the hashrate was 95% lower than today. Recently, it got rejected at $30k but it won't last forever.
In our opinion, in 2023, avoiding the crypto market is riskier* than establishing a stake in it. In the forthcoming years, the crypto market's inelastic supply will witness a large relative capital inflow (institutional demand) and the market will expand. We talk with certainty because we believe it is inevitable.
Since June 2022, each market capitulation induces more unhealthy position unwind and more healthy position accumulation. And now the market is likely entering its final capitulation phase before a new market regime.
We have put together a portfolio that provide the best leverage on the Ethereum ecosystem, while remaining exposed to other competitive L1 networks (Bitcoin included). Here is how to invest.
*The risk of not taking a stake in crypto in 2023 is missing out on the rise of blockchain technologies into mainstream adoption, including the following potential upcoming events over 2024-2025:
- - Ethereum finally scaling its network capabilities by orders of magnitude.
- - Banks becoming fully reliant on blockchain technologies.
- - NFTs becoming a standard tool for most businesses.
- - RWA (commodities, real estate, equities, FIAT currencies, art) getting tokenized.
- - CBDCs pushing a new set of people into BTC & ETH.
- - Ethereum accounts number going from 100M to 1B.
- - A wave of US Bitcoin ETFs getting approved.
- - Mastercard and Visa credit cards offering BTC rewards.
- - Central banks taking interest rates lower.
- - Central banks resuming QE.
- - More countries adopting a Bitcoin standard as they flee the US dollar.
- - Crypto total market cap going from 1T to 10T.
Meanwhile, the supply, already quite tight and increasingly held by fresh capitulation buyers, is set to become even more constrained. The upcoming Bitcoin halving, combined with Ethereum's diminishing supply, will amplify this effect.
