The Elite Entry
Market timing update.
The market has remained relatively stable since our last article, and our position remains unchanged: we believe the ongoing downward trend is not done yet.
Macro-bottom detection.
We are awaiting our AI system to trigger its macro buy signal before entering the market. As depicted in the graphs below, that signal has shown a notable uptick following the recent market downturn, although it has not yet reached a level where we should consider taking action.
Note: Here, we are showing the outputs of old models (trained with data up to 07-2021) for the sake of displaying a long history of performance (on unseen data). But, logically, more recent models perform even better. The crypto market is quite young and rapidly evolving, which makes it especially difficult to extrapolate. Machine learning techniques like data augmentation and concept drift detection can help greatly in overcoming these obstacles.
Buying what?
The crypto market is a minefield. According to CoinMarketCap, there are about 750 tokens with market capitalisations exceeding 10M USD. A majority of these tokens are linked to smart-contracts that are either useless or simply irrelevant/deceiving.
Useless: Smart contract that do not add functionality on top of the basic and inherited token transfer function.
Irrelevant: Redundant functionality without added value or projects designed to attract investment without real value proposition.
The tokens we invest in have tangible fundamental value for the following reasons (see diagrams below).
Why buy the AMC?
The AMC is a net long exposure to ETH, leveraged by beta plays and supported by market timing (incl. up to 15% short exposure).
Furthermore, it includes a quarterly hurdle rate of 2.5%, meaning that performance fees (25%) only apply to returns in excess of 2.5% per quarter.
Finally, the high-water mark sets drawdown control as a top priority because performance fees only apply to returns above the daily All-Time-High performance.
Our 4 conviction plays have with a high chance of maintaining relevance in the long term and significant growth potential during the next cycle.
Our exposure to L1s provides decorrelation & exposure to potential exponential growth. Our thesis being that the Ethereum ecosystem will take most of the market, while other chains are relevant if their specifications complement Ethereum's.
- Our 6 low-cap investments are chosen based on the following criterias:
- - Competitive advantages.
- - Quality of code + relevance of value proposition.
- - Credibility of founder & team.
Why invest now?
Investing now means participating to our highly anticipated upcoming entry, which in itself, represents a very special opportunity.
The market is a player-versus-player environnement, and our entry, as described in this and previous article, should give us a tremendous advantage from the get-go.
Here is how to invest.
