TOTAL3 Is Following Plan
Market timing update.
Today, our models are still bearish, significantly less so than last month, but enough to maintain our conviction trade on (40% still open, see trade).
In the last update, we sent a SHORT signal on the day of the recent top. So once again, our system continues to deliver exceptional results. It has been on quite a streak since last summer, flipping short in august 2022, raising significant alerts prior to the infamous FTX crash and the rest has been documented on this blog.
We focus on showcasing mostly downside detection because that is the main job during an uptrending environment, which is what we are preparing for.
Our projection for the short to medium term is similar to the one we roughly drafted last month. To be more precise, we expect an overall price decline over the next weeks, riddled with small sharp rallies to the upside, creating a short term structure of lower highs.
The psychology behind this price action is essentially that most market participant have turned bullish because of the YTD rally and want to buy the dip. Meanwhile the bear market mode is returning and each pump is met with selling pressure. Looking at economic data, we find confluence in the fact that it seems too early for a risk-on environment to emerge. Finally, when looking at market cycles anatomy, schematically this might be the phase where most market participants get discouraged by a boring and drifting lower market before the start of a new uptrending market regime.
Entry plan: update.
Timing is everything, and the first step in our mission is catch the generational bottom on the tech commodities of tomorrow.
Here is the updated graph from last month describing the relationship between altcoins and BTC+ETH. Everything has been moving as forecasted, BTC+ETH is down and the altcoin dominance is down as well.
We have drawn squiggles of what we see happening and what our entry plan looks like under these conditions. Of course, squiggles don't have to play out exactly but we draw them here for reference.
The real decider for our entry plan, which we can't forecast in advance, is represented in the graph below. It is the long-term bottom / seller exhaustion detection from our AI system.
The fund structure is in the final stages of setup and will be ready by the end of the month, meaning we should be just on time.
Are you ready for the next cycle?
It might not be clear to everybody, but another crypto bull run is inevitable over the next 2-3 years. We are very conscious about the dire state of macro-economy in both the US and Europe. Inflation is likely stickier than most speculators want to think, and a recession is looming. But even a very hard landing will not stop the fast growing adoption of blockchain technology. Instead, it would likely just increase the opportunity by providing an even better entry.
Here is a chart of TOTAL3-USDT-USDC; it represents the altcoin market. As you can see, it is getting quite cheap again and likely heading into levels only seen during the infamous FTX crash that took BTC to 15k.
We tend to believe that the lows from the FTX crash should hold, and that 200B would be a great place to start scaling in. That being said, a violent crash of the SP500 to new lower levels and a confirmed recession could take this market even lower. We are ready for all scenarios and even hope for the latter one, as it would mean opportunities nobody can afford to deny.
Our simple advice to anybody listening.
Our straightforward recommendation for anyone is to dollar-cost average into Bitcoin and Ethereum during this bear market, safeguarding it in cold storage. Then, to truly capitalize on the next cycle, simply delegate your altcoin strategy to us.
The altcoin market is a highly volatile market that has the potential to yield genuinely transformative financial growth if combined with significant edge and precise execution. That is the premise of Anaideia Capital; we believe that our tools and experience distinctly position us at the forefront of the field.
Anaideia.
